CHICAGO – February 4, 2016 – While the U.S. economy has enjoyed steady job growth in recent years, some cities are capturing a larger share of total job creation than others, thanks in large part to factors unique to their local economies. CareerBuilder and Emsi released new research revealing which metros are exceeding industry trends the most – and which ones are lagging behind.
Using a standard regional analysis called shift share, CareerBuilder and Emsi looked at the total job growth across industries for each of the 150 most populous U.S. metros from 2014 to 2015. Each metro’s actual job growth was then compared to what would have been expected for that metro based on national job growth trends during that same time period. The difference between the two measurements is the competitive effect, i.e., how much the metro is exceeding, matching or falling behind national job growth trends because of something unique to that metro’s regional economy.
For example, from 2014 to 2015, total U.S. employment grew 2 percent. At that rate, Dallas would be expected to add 67,959 jobs during that time; however, Dallas surpassed expectations and added 112,829 jobs. While 67,959 of those jobs may be associated with national growth trends, the outstanding 44,871 jobs indicates there are regional market dynamics at play within this metro that caused it to outpace the national growth average.
The 10 Most Competitive MSAs
The following 10 metros grabbed the biggest share of job creation between 2014 and 2015. While Dallas most exceeded job growth expectations, San Jose had the highest percentage among these 10 metros of total employment (3.7 percent) that can be traced to regional competitiveness.
MSA |
Total Employment in 2015 |
Jobs added from 2014 to 2015 |
Jobs expected to be added from 2014 to 2015 based on national job growth |
Jobs added that beat the expected job growth (competitive effect) |
Percentage of total employment due to the MSA’s competitive effect |
1. Dallas, TX |
3,386,930 |
112,829 |
67,959 |
44,871 |
1.3% |
2. San Jose, CA |
1,081,948 |
60,716 |
21,197 |
39,519 |
3.7% |
3. Los Angeles, CA |
5,976,673 |
159,477 |
120,745 |
38,732 |
0.7% |
4. Seattle, WA |
1,981,802 |
78,082 |
39,515 |
38,567 |
2.0% |
5. Miami, FL |
2,476,027 |
81,842 |
49,695 |
32,147 |
1.3% |
6. Atlanta, GA |
2,524,482 |
81,161 |
50,715 |
30,466 |
1.2% |
7. Orlando, FL |
1,157,932 |
50,384 |
22,989 |
27,395 |
2.4% |
8. San Francisco, CA |
2,297,179 |
69,967 |
46,229 |
23,738 |
1.0% |
9. Riverside, CA |
1,392,572 |
50,511 |
27,857 |
22,654 |
1.6% |
10. Charlotte, NC |
1,127,396 |
41,390 |
22,542 |
18,849 |
1.7% |
Among the 150 largest metros, Provo-Orem, Utah, had the highest percentage of total jobs linked to regional competitiveness (4.8 percent). San Jose was second, followed by Orlando (2.4 percent), Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (2.3 percent) and Grand Rapids, Michigan (2.2 percent).
Top 10 Least Competitive Metros
The following are the top 10 metros that fell significantly short in terms of the number of jobs they were expected to add between 2014 and 2015 based on national job growth.
MSA |
Total Employment in 2015 |
Jobs added from 2014 to 2015 |
Jobs expected to be added from 2014 to 2015 based on national job growth |
Jobs that fell short of expected job growth (competitive effect) |
Percentage of total employment due to the MSA’s competitive effect |
1. Chicago, IL |
4,510,903 |
55,443 |
92,480 |
-37,037 |
-0.8% |
2. New York, NY |
9,178,982 |
155,981 |
187,286 |
-31,305 |
-0.3% |
3. Philadelphia, PA |
2,801,206 |
30,875 |
57,502 |
-26,628 |
-1.0% |
4. New Orleans, LA |
564,920 |
-2,491 |
11,778 |
-14,268 |
-2.5% |
5. St. Louis, MO |
1,361,406 |
15,481 |
27,937 |
-12,456 |
-0.9% |
6. Richmond, VA |
634,910 |
2,040 |
13,136 |
-11,096 |
-1.8% |
7. Virginia Beach, VA |
831,542 |
6,896 |
17,117 |
-10,221 |
-1.2% |
8. Cleveland, OH |
1,042,972 |
13,123 |
21,376 |
-8,253 |
-0.8% |
9. Tulsa, OK |
440,495 |
2,295 |
9,096 |
-6,801 |
-1.5% |
10. Lafayette, LA |
223,560 |
-2,100 |
4,684 |
-6,785 |
-3.0% |
“Twenty-seven of the top 50 metros outperformed national employment growth from 2014 to 2015, which can have a positive ripple effect on other regional areas,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder and co-author of The Talent Equation. “The unique characteristics of their local economies played a large part in their growth, such as the booming tech industry in Silicon Valley or the tourism industry in Orlando. Meanwhile, jobs in the oil and gas industry took a hit, which had a major impact on the cities like Tulsa and Lafayette, which ranked at the bottom of our list. And even though major metros such as Chicago, New York and Philadelphia all added more than 30,000 new jobs from 2014 to 2015, they trailed national growth trends.”
The analysis uses Emsi’s extensive labor market database, which pulls from over 90 national and state employment resources and includes detailed information on employees and self-employed workers.
About Emsi
Emsi (Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.) is a CareerBuilder company that provides industry-leading employment data and economic analysis via web tools and custom reports. Emsi turns vast amounts of labor market data into easy-to-use information that helps organizations understand the connection between economies, people, and work, and ultimately build a better workforce. Emsi’s software services - Analyst and Career Coach - are used by thousands of professionals in higher education, workforce and economic development, and the private sector. Emsi has also produced more than 1,400 comprehensive impact analyses for colleges and universities in the U.S. and internationally. For more information, visit www.economicmodeling.com.
About CareerBuilder®
As the global leader in human capital solutions, CareerBuilder specializes in cutting-edge HR software as a service to help companies with every step of the recruitment process from acquire to hire. CareerBuilder works with top employers across industries, providing job distribution, sourcing, workflow, CRM, data and analytics in one pre-hire platform. It also operates leading job sites around the world. Owned by TEGNA Inc. (NYSE:TGNA), Tribune Media (NYSE:TRCO) and The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI), CareerBuilder and its subsidiaries operate in the United States, Europe, South America, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit www.careerbuilder.com.
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